What is Grey Market in IPO and How It Works
When an IPO (Initial Public Offering) grabs attention, you’ll often hear people talking about the Grey Market. But what exactly is it? Why do investors track Grey Market Premium (GMP) before an IPO is listed? And how does it impact your decision-making?
Let’s break it down in simple terms.
IPO Grey Market Explained
The Grey Market is an unofficial platform where investors buy and sell shares of an IPO even before the company lists on the stock exchange. Think of it like a pre-launch buzz — investors trade IPO shares based on expectations.
The key point? This market isn’t regulated by SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India). It runs purely on trust and demand-supply.
If you want to invest officially, the right way is to open demat account and apply for an IPO through authorised brokers and exchanges instead of relying on grey market trades.
What is Grey Market Stock?
Before shares of a company are actually listed on the stock exchange, they are traded and sold in the unofficial market. Such trades are known as Grey Market Stock. They do not occur through stock exchanges such as NSE or BSE. Rather, they occur between people, primarily based on trust.
For instance, if an enterprise is issuing its Initial Public Offering (IPO), certain investors would attempt to purchase the shares in the IPO grey market. The price at which the shares are being offered for sale in this informal market, either higher or lower than the real IPO price, is referred to as the Grey Market Premium (GMP).
This market is not regulated by SEBI (the stock market regulator), so it involves risk. But investors still track it because it gives an idea of how the IPO might perform on listing day.
Pro Tip: To invest safely, always apply for IPO via official platforms using your demat account rather than depending on informal grey market deals.
Trading in Grey Market
Trading in the IPO grey market happens before the shares are officially listed. It is done informally, without any paperwork or regulation, and completely based on trust.
Grey market trading generally takes place through dealers who act as intermediaries between buyers and sellers. Investors usually connect with these dealers through references, as the entire process runs on mutual trust. Orders are typically placed over phone calls, and trades are settled in cash through informal networks. Since there are no formal contracts or official records, disputes or defaults cannot be legally enforced.
Grey market trading can involve two types of deals; trading of IPO shares before they are listed and trading of IPO applications. The settlement of trades usually happens on the listing day, and once the shares are listed, the grey market for that IPO automatically closes. If the IPO does not take place within 90 days of the deal, the trade gets cancelled.
One of the notable aspects of the grey market is its flexibility; it operates around the clock without restrictions of official market hours. However, this informality also adds to its risk, as there are no registered dealers or legal protections in case of fraud or default.
While the grey market gives an early indication of investor sentiment toward an IPO, investors should exercise caution and avoid relying solely on such trades for investment decisions.
How does the IPO Grey Market Work?
The IPO grey market is an informal space where shares of a company are bought and sold before they are officially listed on the stock exchange. It is not regulated by SEBI or any official body. Deals here are based purely on mutual trust.
Here’s how it works:
Suppose Mr. A applies for shares in an IPO. Mr. B, who wants to own the shares without going through the official IPO process, contacts a grey market dealer. The dealer connects Mr. A and Mr. B. If Mr. A gets the shares in allotment, he must sell them to Mr. B at a pre-decided price (IPO price + premium).
For example, if the IPO price is ₹500 and the agreed premium is ₹100, Mr. B pays ₹600 per share. If the listing price turns out to be ₹700, Mr. B earns a profit. Grey market trades are risky, but they give hints about investor interest in an upcoming IPO grey market. Use Findoc to monitor official IPO performance post listing.
Also Read: How IPOs Work?
How are Unlisted Shares traded in the IPO Grey Market
Let’s say a new company is coming out with an IPO, and the issue price is ₹100 per share. But before the IPO gets listed on NSE/BSE, people are already willing to pay ₹150 per share in the grey market. That ₹50 difference is called Grey Market Premium (GMP).
Here’s how investors participate:
1. Buying IPO shares in advance
Investors who didn’t get IPO allotment or want to increase their stake approach grey market dealers to buy IPO shares before they list.
2. Selling IPO shares in advance (Offloading Allotment)
People who expect a listing gain agree to sell their shares in advance, hoping for a higher premium.
3. Dealing through ‘Grey Market Dealers’
These are unofficial brokers or contacts who connect buyers and sellers. Everything happens offline—usually via phone calls, WhatsApp messages, or through word of mouth.
IPO Grey Market Rate Types
1. Subject to sauda
‘Subject to sauda’ is a type of IPO grey market deal where the buyer agrees to pay a fixed price for an IPO application only if the seller receives the allotment. This means the deal is valid only if shares are allotted. It offers more safety for the buyer compared to other grey market trades. The agreed price is usually higher than the Kostak rate because the buyer gets confirmed shares if allotted. For example, if the buyer agrees to pay ₹4,000 for the full application, they’ll pay only if shares are actually allotted to the seller.
What Is the Kostak Rate?
The Kostak Rate refers to the premium amount an investor receives for selling their entire IPO application to a third party, regardless of the allotment outcome. This transaction allows the seller to exit the IPO process early, locking in a fixed profit while transferring both the potential upside and the risk of non-allotment to the buyer.
For example: Suppose you applied for an IPO but choose not to wait for the allotment results. You decide to sell your application in the grey market for a Kostak Rate of ₹800.
If shares are allotted, the buyer receives them.
If no shares are allotted, the buyer bears the loss.
In both scenarios, you retain the ₹800 Kostak premium, irrespective of the IPO result.
This concept is similar to selling a lottery ticket before the draw; you forgo potential gains but eliminate the uncertainty and risk. Kostak deals are based purely on trust and are common in high-demand IPOs where grey market activity is robust.
What is IPO Grey Market Premium (GMP)
The Grey Market Premium (GMP) represents the additional amount that investors are willing to pay over the IPO issue price in the unofficial (grey) market, prior to the stock’s official listing. It serves as an informal indicator of market sentiment and expected demand for a particular IPO.
For example, suppose a company named XYZ Ltd is set to launch its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the coming week. Each IPO lot consists of 10 equity shares, with an issue price of ₹1,000 per share.
In the grey market, if prospective buyers believe the stock is worth ₹1,200 per share, they are willing to pay an additional ₹200 per share over the issue price. In this case:
The Grey Market Price (GMP) is ₹1,200.
The Grey Market Premium is ₹200 (i.e., ₹1,200 – ₹1,000).
GMP is often expressed in percentage terms to assess relative market sentiment. In this example:
Grey Market Premium (%) = ₹200 / ₹1,000 × 100 = 20%.
When the Grey Market Price exceeds the issue price, the IPO shares are said to be trading at a premium, indicating positive market sentiment. Conversely, if the Grey Market Price is below the issue price, the shares are trading at a discount, which often signals weak demand or lack of investor confidence.
Typically, IPOs with shares trading at a premium in the grey market attract more applications from investors and traders. On the other hand, IPOs trading at a discount in the grey market may receive a muted response or even get avoided by retail and institutional investors alike.
Also Read: Types of IPO
How GMP Influences IPO Pricing
Grey Market Premium (GMP) doesn’t directly influence the IPO issue price, because the IPO price is already fixed by the company and its merchant bankers before the grey market starts buzzing. But GMP does influence investor sentiment, which can impact:
1. Retail Subscription Levels
When GMP is high, more retail investors rush to apply. They expect listing gains and don’t want to miss out. This often leads to oversubscription, especially in the retail and HNI categories.
2. Anchor Investor Confidence
Big investors (like mutual funds or institutional players) use GMP as a temperature check. If GMP is strong, they see strong market demand and are more likely to invest during the anchor round confidently.
3. Grey Market Buzz Affects Listing Day Price
While GMP doesn’t change the issue price, it often sets expectations for the listing price. A high GMP builds hype, and that can lead to aggressive buying on listing day—pushing the stock price even higher. Conversely, a weak or falling GMP might lead to a dull listing.
For example: Suppose an IPO has an issue price of ₹100 and GMP is ₹70. That signals a strong demand, and traders expect listing at ₹170 or more. This expectation alone can drive pre-listing demand and post-listing trading volumes.
Related Blog: Things You Should Know Before Investing in IPO
IPO Grey Market Premium Vs Kostak
When it comes to IPO grey market trading, two commonly used terms are Grey Market Premium (GMP) and Kostak Rate. While both reflect investor sentiment and demand for an IPO, they differ in meaning, risk, and usage as shown below:
| Feature | Grey Market Premium (GMP) | Kostak Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Meaning | The extra amount buyers are willing to pay per share | Fixed price for buying an entire IPO application |
| Basis | Price per share | Price per application |
| Payment Condition | Paid only if shares are allotted | Paid regardless of allotment |
| Risk Level | High depends on allotment and listing) | Lower (payout is fixed) |
| Common Use | To trade expected IPO gains per share | To reserve potential listing gains |
Grey Market Premium vs Listing Price
Investors usually compare the Grey Market Premium (GMP) with the actual Listing Price to judge how correct the grey market signals are. Here’s a quick comparison to judge the differences between the two.
| Factor | Grey Market Premium (GMP) | Listing Price |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Unofficial premium before stock listing | Official market price on listing day |
| Source | Informal market dealers | Stock exchange |
| Predictive Value | Indicates expected demand | Reflects actual market sentiment |
| Volatility | Highly volatile | Determined by real-time investor trading |
| Regulation | Not regulated | Regulated by SEBI and stock exchanges |
Grey Market Trading Advantages & Disadvantages
| Advantages | Disadvantages |
|---|---|
| Provides an early demand signal for IPOs | Not regulated by SEBI |
| Allows pre-listing trade opportunities | High risk if shares aren’t allotted/listed low |
| Useful for estimating listing gains | No legal protection for buyers/sellers |
| Offers liquidity before official listing | Deals based only on trust and verbal contracts |
Final Thoughts
The grey market is a good tool for measuring IPO buzz, but it’s not a foolproof way to predict success. Use it for what it is; a sentiment indicator, not an investment guarantee. Stick to your research, stay informed, and don’t fall for hype.
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FAQs on IPO Grey Market
Investors track GMP because it gives them a quick signal of how hot the IPO is, whether it’s worth subscribing to, and what kind of listing gain they can expect.
No, relying solely on the Grey Market Premium (GMP) to evaluate an IPO is not advisable. While GMP can offer a preliminary view of market sentiment, it is neither official nor always accurate.
No, a strong Grey Market Premium (GMP) does not guarantee positive listing gains. While GMP reflects optimistic sentiment in the unofficial market, it is not a foolproof predictor of how the stock will perform on the listing day.
Use GMP as a sentiment indicator, not a guarantee. Always do your own research on company fundamentals, valuation, and sector performance before applying for an IPO.
Trading in the Grey Market is neither explicitly legal nor illegal—it operates in an unregulated space, which is why it’s termed a “grey” market.
GMP is purely based on demand and supply in the unofficial market. If more people want the shares than those willing to sell, GMP rises.
The difference between GMP and Kostak is that GMP refers to the premium for one share, while Kostak is the premium for the entire IPO application, regardless of whether shares are allotted or not.
A high Grey Market Premium (GMP) suggests strong demand and positive investor sentiment for the IPO. It usually indicates that the stock may list at a premium price compared to its issue price.
GMP pricing refers to the extra amount investors are willing to pay for IPO shares before their official listing. It reflects market expectations and demand in the unofficial grey market.
You can check the latest GMP price on trusted websites like Findoc or IPO Watch. These platforms regularly update GMP based on investor demand and unofficial market transactions.
GMP is calculated as the difference between the grey market price and the IPO issue price. For example, if the IPO price is ₹100 and GMP is ₹30, the expected listing price is ₹130.
Still have questions? If you need more information or have specific questions, feel free to reach out. We’re happy to help you find the answers you’re looking for.